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Prediction for CME (2021-12-18T18:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-12-18T18:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18575/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C6.3 flare peaking at 2021-12-18T18:01Z from around S19E89. This is accompanied by an eruption on the east limb. It is seen with moving/opening field lines, and post eruption arcades in SDO AIA 193/171. The material can also be seen erupting off the east limb in SDO AIA 304. UPDATE (2021-12-24T17:14Z): There may possibly be the weak signature of a flux rope buried in the L1 solar wind data around 2021-12-21T14:05Z, following the arrival of the 2021-12-19 high speed stream, but there is no solar wind density, speed, or temperature data to conclusively support an arrival.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-21T13:43Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: -26719.22 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z

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